But that's not even my larger point. I predict, and I don't even think it's much of a prediction, that someone will come up with an approach to easily and cheaply get independent moviemaking into homes. Something that, at the time it begins, it will be so easy, cheap and/or convenient that it will bring a surge of product into a number of homes that wouldn't ordinarily have as much independent moviemaking.
Yes, that's basically broad enough to be not too difficult to predict. I'm not claiming to be a genius on this one.
If it's done right, it should be able to brand itself into the popular vocabulary, like Netflix or iTunes. How long the window of its success will be, will depend almost entirely on how well it does at providing something people outside of niche audiences want, perhaps something like early '90s Miramax, although a successful version should be able to deliver more, which could allow for some quirkier things.
I'm guessing it will involve its own specific delivery engine, but again, I'd suggest a shotgun approach to possible delivery methods, as I discuss in some of the Independent serial posts. And, in fact, that format, of serialized works and such, may very easily be the opening it takes into that market.
I'll also add that if not handled properly it could die a quick death after its flash in the pan, and if its too successful, it will cause Hollywood to reluctantly and slowly join whatever its game is and drive it down. But in the case of the latter, it could leave a small foothold... or maybe I'm just a dreamer...